PricewaterhouseCoopers Predicts U.S. Olympic Team Medal Total in Athens To Be Significantly Less Than in 2000 Games

PwC Model Assessing Population, Relative Income Levels and Political Factors in Determining Medal Success Predicts 70 Medals for the U.S in Athens; Down from 97 Four Years Ago

August 9, 2004 - A new PricewaterhouseCoopers study predicts that the United States Olympic team will bring home fewer medals than they did during the 2000 Sydney Olympic Games. According to the study, the U.S. Olympic team will win 70 medals in Athens - in comparison to 97 won four years ago in Australia. The prediction comes after the completion of a PwC study that found that population, relative income levels and political factors are major determinants of how successful a country will be at the Olympics.

But how will other countries fare?

According to PricewaterhouseCoopers' analysis, the former Soviet bloc countries are expected to outperform at the 2004 Athens Games - so too, is the host nation. In fact, almost fifteen years after the Berlin Wall was razed, many former Soviet bloc countries continue to win significantly more medals at the Olympic Games than would be predicted by the size of their economies.

The following factors were found to be statistically significant in explaining the number of medals won by each country at previous Olympic Games since 1988:

• Population;
• Average income levels (measured by GDP per capita at PPP exchange rates);
• Whether the country was previously part of the former Soviet bloc (including Cuba in this case);
• Whether the country is the host nation; and
• Medal shares in the previous Olympic Games.

The benchmark shows model estimates of the top 30 medal winners at the Athens Olympics in comparison with actual performance in Sydney 2000. These results are not necessarily the best predictions of performance in Athens, but they do represent one possible benchmark against which actual performance can be judged. The U.S., Russia, China and Germany are expected to continue to lead the medal table in Athens, although the model suggests that they will do well to match their performance at the Sydney Olympics. For Greece as host nation, the medal outlook according to the model is much brighter than in Sydney, while Australia is expected to rank lower on the medal table somewhat without its home country advantage. For other countries, the model estimates tend to be more similar to performance at Sydney, but may prove useful as a standard against which to calibrate how well a country really does at the Athens Olympics in the light of its size, income levels, political history and past performance.

Overall, the PricewaterhouseCoopers model is able to explain nearly 90% of the variation in medal shares across countries in recent Olympic Games, although this still leaves some room for other factors, such as outstanding individual athletic performances, to play a part as well.

Please find below a table that provides model estimates of Athens Olympics medals totals as compared to Sydney 2000 results.

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